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GE13 ANALYSIS Since election campaigning began informally in Johor a month ago, photographs have gone viral on the Internet showing thousands of Chinese Malaysians at Pakatan Rakyat ceramahs in major cities in the state.
This may have convinced many supporters that the BN stronghold is ready to be swept up by the ‘political storm’ that Pakatan hopes to create in the 13th general election.
The attendance may not translate to votes but the RM92,447 raised at the ceramah in Skudai, which some 7,000 people attended, was telling.
From the response observed in Malay areas, Pakatan has yet to make significant inroads into the BN vote bank.
At two ceramahs held by PAS last Saturday in Pulai, where party vice-president Salahuddin Ayub is contesting, the attendance was less than 50 at each, even though Salahuddin and two other Pakatan candidates were scheduled to speak.
Whether Pakatan can make a dent in BN support largely depends on its ability to overcome two major hurdles - the geographical setting of major towns and the characteristics of Malay Johoreans.
Johor is the fifth-largest state of Malaysia, with major towns being located far from each other. Inter-town travel usually takes more than one hour.
This has limited the information flow among communities and hemmed in the momentum created by Pakatan in various locations, preventing this from building up a domino effect.
This is contrary to the scenario in Penang in the 2008 general election, when anti-BN sentiments had spread like wildfire across the island due to the close proximity between communities.
The second hurdle is more challenging as it is deeply rooted in the psychology and culture of Malay Johoreans.
Being the birthplace of Umno (in 1946) and many of its strongmen, Johor's political landscape has largely been shaped by Umno's race-based politics built on Malay dominance.
Having been under Umno’s political monopoly for almost seven decades, Malay Johoreans have been indoctrinated with a strong sense of Malay nationalism and supremacy.
“The Malays in Kelantan and Kedah place religion before race, but Malays in Johor place race before religion. Issues about Malay rights or foreign control really worry them,” said a young Johor PAS leader who has been working on the ground for years.
Although the Malays enjoy a cordial relationship with non-Malay communities, they will not compromise should their political dominance be threatened, he said.
Another popular conspiracy spread by Umno, according to PAS campaigners, is that Anwar Ibrahim will be nothing more than a temporary prime minister before giving the job to DAP should Pakatan come to power at federal level.
To allay these fears, PAS leaders including Salahuddin have stressed that a Chinese Malaysian will not be either prime minister or menteri besar in a Pakatan-led government, and that the coalition will safeguard the status of bumiputras, Malay rulers, Islam and the Malay language.
The lukewarm response of Malay voters has been expected by PAS.
“They also don't like to express their political stance. They do not want people to say, 'Hey, I saw you at the opposition ceramah', so they seldom attend our ceramahs.”
Hence, PAS is engaging voters on door-to-door visits and during walkabouts, which are off the media radar. Leaflets are distributed during these activities to explain issues.
“Malay Johoreans don't like strong language, they prefer an ethical campaign, so we have to use a soft approach to reach out to them. We don't attack our opponents too aggressively,” Suhaizan explained.
This partly explains why moderate Umno leaders such as incumbent Johor Bahru MP Shahrir Abdul Samad and incumbent Menteri Besar Abdul Ghani Othman are popular in Johor.
Ghani has repeatedly denied that his task is to bury his rival Lim Kit Siang's political career in Gelang Patah, a remark first made by former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad and repeated by other Umno leaders.
Non-confrontational approach
PKR campaign in Malay areas have adopted a similar ‘softly softly’ approach.
“I will organise only a few ceramahs in Chinese areas.”
The non-confrontation approach also means that the Malay community could favour the status quo and stick to what they are familiar with, particularly among the older generation.
"This is where Umno was born. PAS' ideology is something that was brought in by religious teachers from Kelantan," said 55-year-old Tasri Taib at a stall in Labis.
Islamist ideology that forms PAS' political foundation is less well received in Johor.
Asked about hudud law, Azlan Khamis, 61, said point blank that its implementation would only serve to unfairly punish Muslims.
"It's a multiracial country. How can you chop off the hands of a Muslim who steals, but not that of Ah Chong? Does that mean that Ah Chong can steal? We are a multiracial country, so (hudud) won’t work," said Azlan, an Umno supporter.
The geographical barrier may not significantly deter the younger generation in their political leanings, according to Tasri, who lamented that this "stubborn generation" just will not support Umno a their parents have all along.
"In my village, there's a family whose parents are both with Umno. Their son, who is a teacher, insists on supporting PAS,” he related.
"I asked him why and he said he sees all kinds of things on the Internet. But what you see on the Internet may not always be accurate.”
Another important factor that gives hope to Pakatan, is the rapid increase of the Malay population in urban centres.
They are more open to attending ceramahs, as has been seen in Segamat and Kluang, where a substantial number of the community also reside and do business.
He likened this to the mood among Chinese voters before the 'political tsunami' of 2008.
“Our target is 35 percent of Malay votes. I think we are not far from there. I’ve met many people especially Malays. The young Malays give you a feeling that they really support Pakatan. They would say'ubah' (change) and 'semoga berjaya' (wish you success),” he toldMalaysiakini.
“They would use a passionate but cautious way to tell you that they are supporting you. It is like the Chinese before 2008. They would tell you 'to the sky' if they support DAP.”
The DAP’s two mega ceramahs in Skudai (in the south) and Kluang (in the middle of the state) last Saturday night was dubbed 'Super Saturday' - it attracted a crowd of some 20,000, the majority of who were Chinese Malaysians.
DAP election strategist Liew Chin Tong (left), who is the candidate for the Kluangparliamentary constituency, said Pakatan needs 30-35 percent of the Malay votes - from the average of 20 percent in 2008 - in order to bring about meaningful political change to the state.
PAS aims to raise the support level to 35 or 37 percent, according to Salahuddin.
Race above all else
Understanding this mindset well, Umno has played up the issue that Johor PKR chief Chua Jui Meng (right in photo) will become menteri besar under Pakatan rule, even though the state constitution stipulates that only a Malay can be appointed to the post.
The lukewarm response of Malay voters has been expected by PAS.
“Malay Johoreans don't like politics because they don't like friction with others and politics is full of friction,” said Suhaizan Kaiat (left), PAS candidate for Kempas, a state seat under Pulai.
“Anwar has repeatedly told me that PKR's focus is Malay voters. Organising ceramahs can only attract our own supporters. So most of my campaign will comprise walkabouts to introduce myself to Malay voters,” said Steven Choong(left), PKR candidate for Tebrauparliamentary seat.
Liew, who studied Malaysian Islamic politics and PAS for his degree programme at the Australian National University, claimed he can sense strong undercurrents among Malay Johoreans.
He likened this to the mood among Chinese voters before the 'political tsunami' of 2008.
Additional reporting by Nigel Aw
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